![]() ![]() Here are Henry's career broken/missed tackle percentages: Derrick Henry, Career BMT% Perhaps Henry always posts low BMT rates, and it's no big deal. Henry is more likely to break a tackle than make a defender miss, so maybe there's some counting aberration at work. But perhaps we are looking at some sort of statistical anomaly. It's not an encouraging sign to see Henry on the same list as guys like Elliott and Barkley, plus a bunch of committee backs and randos. (A scan of the receiving BMT rates for running backs revealed nothing noteworthy about the backs that we're discussing.) And it's worth noting here that BMT% is a rushing stat, so Ekeler, Patterson, and others don't get any credit for juking defenders after receptions. We see better running backs at the bottom (top, really) of the list above, but we also see BMT rates climbing well into the double digits. Barkley is the muscle car the Giants wrecked the moment they drove him off the lot. Gaskin is a committee back who played behind one of the league's worst lines in 2021 he rarely had room to run and did nothing with what he had. Hubbard was a bland rookie pressed into service for a bad team. Williams is a veteran RB2 known more for funny quips and locker-room leadership than truck-stick highlights. (Tony Pollard's BMT% was a not-so-hot 10.8%, if you are curious.) Patterson was a fun story for a not-so-fun team, but he was no more than an adequate rusher. So where's Henry? Well, here are the NFL's worst broken/missed tackle rates for 2021 among backs with over 150 carries: Lowest BMT%, 2021Įlliott is the albatross Jerry Jones chained around the Cowboys' neck. Most of the running backs who matter hovered in the 15.0% range: Aaron Jones (17.5%), Alvan Kamara (16.3%), Jonathan Taylor (16.3%), Nick Chubb (15.4%.) Buffalo Bills running back Devin Singletary was a surprising second at 21.3%. Walkthrough abbreviates that as BMT%, and it's exactly what the label says it is.ĭenver Broncos rookie Javonte Williams led the NFL with a BMT% of 21.7 in 2021. Walkthrough is certain that Henry is toast, not because of the injury or a "curse" (and the research behind that curse), but because of a Sports Info Solutions metric called Broken Tackles plus Missed Tackles divided by Attempts. ![]() But we'll pass on Henry as the focal point of an offense with Super Bowl aspirations. He returned for 20 carries for 62 yards in the playoff loss to the Bengals, which was a far cry from the 195-yard playoff performances of years past which made Henry much more than a fantasy football legend.Īn overused power runner coming off a major foot injury? Sure, we'll take him as a fantasy RB1 (more on that later), if only because there aren't many better options. Henry appeared to be cruising along without a care about his mileage in the first half of 2021, with five 100-yard rushing afternoons in his first six games, before suffering a foot fracture against the Colts in Week 8. Henry is two years removed from a 378-carry, 2,027-yard season for the Tennessee Titans that was magnificent to watch but which voided his factory warranty. Don't act like you're surprised to hear it from Football Outsiders, the pioneers of the Curse of 370, either. ![]() Don't act like you weren't already thinking it. ![]()
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